Introduction to Probability and the Probability Scale
This lesson covers the fundamental principles of probability for Year 8, focusing on the probability scale, calculating theoretical probability of single events, and understanding that the sum of probabilities of all possible outcomes is 1.
Learning objectives
- Calculate the probability of a single event using the P(A) = successful outcomes / total outcomes formula.
- Understand and use the fact that the probabilities of all mutually exclusive outcomes sum to 1.
- Convert between fractions, decimals, and percentages to express probability.
- Solve problems involving the probability of an event not occurring (complementary events).
Lesson plan (60 minutes)
Introduction · 10 min
Starter: Probability Scale. Students place events (e.g., 'It will rain today') on a 0-1 scale.
Instruction · 15 min
Teacher-led instruction: Explaining the probability formula and the sum of probabilities.
Guided Practice · 20 min
Differentiated Worksheet Practice: Students work through Support, Core, or Stretch tasks.
Assessment · 10 min
Multiple Choice Quiz: Quick assessment of understanding.
Review · 5 min
Plenary: Reviewing one 'Stretch' question and checking for misconceptions.
Key vocabulary
- Outcome
- The result of an experiment (e.g., rolling a 6).
- Probability
- A value between 0 and 1 describing the likelihood of an event.
- Mutually Exclusive
- Events that cannot happen at the same time.
- Fair/Biased
- All outcomes have the same chance of happening.
- Complementary Event
- The probability of an event NOT occurring.
Core worksheet (first questions)
- A spinner has 10 equal sections numbered 1 to 10. What is the probability of landing on an even number? Simplify your fraction.
- The letters in the word 'PROBABLE' are put in a hat. What is the probability of picking a 'B'?
- The probability that a student passes a test is 0.15. What is the probability they fail?
- A letter is chosen at random from the word 'EDUCATION'. What is the probability it is a vowel?
Quiz (sample)
1. What is the probability of flipping a fair coin and getting 'Heads'?
- A. 0
- B. 0.5
- C. 1
- D. 5
2. A fair six-sided die is rolled. What is the probability of rolling a 4?
- A. 1/2
- B. 1/6
- C. 5/6
- D. 0
3. If an event is 'Certain' to happen, what is its probability?
- A. 0
- B. 0.1
- C. 0.5
- D. 1
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